Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Wheat Yield Resilience Amidst Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors

  • Petros Chavula World Agroforestry Centre, St Eugene Office Park 39P Lake Road, P.O. Box 50977, Kabulonga, Lusaka, Zambia & Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate-Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7153-8233
  • Fredrick Kayusi Department of Environmental Studies, Geography & Planning, Maasai Mara University, - 861-20500, Narok-Kenya Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1481-4016
  • Linety Juma Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62486/latia202588

Keywords:

Deep learning, leaf area index, convolutional neural networks, wheat breeding, climate resilience, plant phenotyping

Abstract

The introduction of a deep learning-based method for non-destructive leaf area index (LAI) assessment has enhanced rapid estimation for wheat and similar crops, aiding crop growth monitoring, water, and nutrient management. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based algorithms enable accurate, non-destructive quantification of seedling leaf areas and assess LAI across diverse genotypes and environments, demonstrating adaptability. Transfer learning, known for efficiency in plant phenotyping, was tested as a resource-saving approach for training the wheat LAI model. These advancements support wheat breeding, facilitate genotype selection for varied environments, accelerate genetic gains, and enhance genomic selection for LAI. By capturing diverse environments, this method can improve wheat resilience to climate change. Additionally, advances in machine learning and data science enable better prediction and distribution mapping of global wheat rust pathogens, a major agricultural challenge. Accurate risk identification allows for timely and effective control measures. Moreover, wheat lodging prediction models using CNNs can assess lodging-prone varieties, influencing selection decisions to improve yield stability. These artificial intelligence-driven techniques contribute to sustainable crop growth and yield enhancement, especially in the context of climate change and increasing global food demand.

References

B. Stuch, J. Alcamo, and R. Schaldach, "Projected climate change impacts on mean and year-to-year variability of yield of key smallholder crops in Sub-Saharan Africa," Climate and Development, 2021. tandfonline.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1760771

T. S. Jayne and P. A. Sanchez, "Agricultural productivity must improve in sub-Saharan Africa," Science, 2021. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf5413

S. Adjei-Nsiah, F. Baijukya, A. Bala, "Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of ..., 2024. sciencedirect.com

M. W. J. Noort, S. Renzetti, V. Linderhof, G. E. du Rand, "Towards sustainable shifts to healthy diets and food security in sub-Saharan Africa with climate-resilient crops in bread-type products: A food system analysis," *Foods*, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11020135

M. H. U. Khan, S. Wang, J. Wang, S. Ahmar, "Applications of artificial intelligence in climate-resilient smart-crop breeding," International Journal of, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms231911156

M. J. Usigbe, S. Asem-Hiablie, D. D. Uyeh, and O. Iyiola, "Enhancing resilience in agricultural production systems with AI-based technologies," Environment, 2024. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03588-0

K. M. Agboka, H. E. Z. Tonnang, E. M. Abdel-Rahman, "Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms for modelling potential maize yield under maize–legume farming systems in East Africa," Agronomy, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12123085

N. K. Sharma, A. Anand, N. Budhlakoti, and D. C. Mishra, "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Rice Improvement," in *Climate-Smart Rice*, Springer, 2024. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7098-4_11

J. Kihara, B. Gurmessa, L. Tamene, and T. Amede, "Understanding factors influencing wheat productivity in Ethiopian highlands," Experimental, 2022. cambridge.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479721000296

H. Wudil, M. Usman, J. Rosak-Szyrocka, and L. Pilař, "Reversing years for global food security: A review of the food security situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," International Journal of …, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192214836

J. V. Silva, M. Jaleta, K. Tesfaye, B. Abeyo, and M. Devkota, "Pathways to wheat self-sufficiency in Africa," *Global Food*, Elsevier, 2023. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100684

D. N. L. Pequeno, I. M. Hernandez-Ochoa, "Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production," Environmental, 2021. iop.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd970

F. Zegeye, B. Alamirew, and D. Tolossa, "Analysis of wheat yield gap and variability in Ethiopia," International Journal of …, 2020. academia.edu DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11

M. Grosse-Heilmann, E. Cristiano, R. Deidda, "Durum wheat productivity today and tomorrow: A review of influencing factors and climate change effects," Resources, Environment, 2024. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2024.100170

R. K. Singh, R. Berkvens, and M. Weyn, "AgriFusion: An architecture for IoT and emerging technologies based on a precision agriculture survey," IEEE Access, 2021. ieee.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3116814

G. Lee, Q. Wei, and Y. Zhu, "Emerging wearable sensors for plant health monitoring," Advanced Functional Materials, 2021. google.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/adfm.202106475

Z. Li, R. Guo, M. Li, Y. Chen et al., "A review of computer vision technologies for plant phenotyping," Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2020. github.io DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2020.105672

S. Jin, X. Sun, F. Wu, Y. Su, Y. Li, S. Song, and K. Xu, "Lidar sheds new light on plant phenomics for plant breeding and management: Recent advances and future prospects," ISPRS Journal of Climate Change, 2021. researchgate.net DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.11.006

N. Bachmann, S. Tripathi, M. Brunner, and H. Jodlbauer, "The contribution of data-driven technologies in achieving the sustainable development goals," Sustainability, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052497

K. Spanaki, U. Sivarajah, M. Fakhimi, and S. Despoudi, "Disruptive technologies in agricultural operations: A systematic review of AI-driven AgriTech research," Annals of Operations, 2022. springer.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03922-z

K. A. Farhan, A. R. Onteddu, and S. Kothapalli, "Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Drive Global Sustainability: Insights Ahead of SAC 2024 in Kuala Lumpur," Sustainability, 2024. researchgate.net

H. F. Williamson, J. Brettschneider, and M. Caccamo, "Data management challenges for artificial intelligence in plant and agricultural research," 2023. nih.gov DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52204.2

R. Dainelli, A. Bruno, M. Martinelli, and D. Moroni, "GranoScan: an AI-powered mobile app for in-field identification of biotic threats of wheat," *Frontiers in Plant*, 2024. frontiersin.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2024.1298791

K. Xu, L. Shu, Q. Xie, M. Song, Y. Zhu, and W. Cao, "Precision weed detection in wheat fields for agriculture 4.0: A survey of enabling technologies, methods, and research challenges," Computers and Electronics, 2023. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.108106

Zaji, Z. Liu, G. Xiao, J. S. Sangha et al., "A survey on deep learning applications in wheat phenotyping," Applied Soft Computing, 2022. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.109761

J. Su, X. Zhu, S. Li, and W. H. Chen, "AI meets UAVs: A survey on AI empowered UAV perception systems for precision agriculture," Neurocomputing, 2023. google.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2022.11.020

N. N. Misra, Y. Dixit, A. Al-Mallahi, "IoT, big data, and artificial intelligence in agriculture and food industry," IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 2020. figshare.com

S. Koparde, A. Behare, S. Kasare, J. Patil et al., "Crop Yield Prediction for Cereals using Machine Learning," publications.scrs.in, . scrs.in

O. Akande, "Challenges and Opportunities in Machine Learning for Bioenergy Crop Yield Prediction: A Review," Available at SSRN 4898518, 2024. ssrn.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4898518

T. Adebola and E. Ibeke, "Agriculture in Africa: the emerging role of artificial intelligence.," 2023. worktribe.com

U. D. Maiwada, M. G. Qabasiyu, and M. H. Dauda, "Effects of 5G Network and Climatic Fluctuations on Sorghum Yield in Nigeria," International Journal of ..., 2024. uir.ac.id

C. C. Okolie, G. Danso-Abbeam, and O. Groupson-Paul, "Climate-smart agriculture amidst climate change to enhance agricultural production: a bibliometric analysis," Land, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land12010050

Z. A. Imoro, A. Z. Imoro, and A. B. Duwiejuah, "Harnessing indigenous technologies for sustainable management of land, water, and food resources amidst climate change," Frontiers in Sustainable, 2021. frontiersin.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.691603

B. H. Msomba, P. M. Ndaki, and C. O. Joseph, "Sugarcane sustainability in a changing climate: a systematic review on pests, diseases, and adaptive strategies," Frontiers in Agronomy, 2024. frontiersin.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2024.1423233

N. E. Benti, M. D. Chaka, A. G. Semie, and B. Warkineh, "Transforming agriculture with Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and IoT: perspectives from Ethiopia—challenges and opportunities," Discover Agriculture, 2024. springer.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44279-024-00066-7

SMA Kiemde and AD Kora, "The challenges facing the development of AI in Africa," in *2020 IEEE International Conference*, 2020. (HTML)

G. Myovella, M. Karacuka, and J. Haucap, "Determinants of digitalization and digital divide in Sub-Saharan African economies: A spatial Durbin analysis," Telecommunications Policy, 2021. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2021.102224

K. You, S. Dal Bianco, and J. Amankwah-Amoah, "Closing technological gaps to alleviate poverty: evidence from 17 sub-saharan african countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020. kent.ac.uk DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120055

J. Cariolle, "International connectivity and the digital divide in Sub-Saharan Africa," Information Economics and Policy, 2021. econstor.eu DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2020.100901

J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin, S. J. Lade, and J. F. Abrams, "Safe and just Earth system boundaries," *Nature*, 2023. nature.com

D. Kuteyi and H. Winkler, "Logistics challenges in sub-Saharan Africa and opportunities for digitalization," Sustainability, 2022. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14042399

K. G. Abreha, W. Kassa, E. K. K. Lartey, and T. A. Mengistae, "Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa: seizing opportunities in global value chains," 2021. google.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1673-4

J. Hou, X. Fu, and P. Mohnen, "The impact of China–Africa trade on the productivity of African firms: evidence from Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, 2022. brunel.ac.uk DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00381-5

T. S. Jayne, L. Fox, K. Fuglie, and A. Adelaja, "Agricultural productivity growth, resilience, and economic transformation in sub-Saharan Africa," Association of Public and Land, 2021. usaid.gov

S. Chen, S. Sun, and S. Kang, "System integration of terrestrial mobile communication and satellite communication—the trends, challenges and key technologies in B5G and 6G," China communications, 2020. researchgate.net DOI: https://doi.org/10.23919/JCC.2020.12.011

M. Vaezi, A. Azari, S. R. Khosravirad, "Cellular, wide-area, and non-terrestrial IoT: A survey on 5G advances and the road toward 6G," in Communications, 2022. (PDF) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/COMST.2022.3151028

J. Wanyama, E. Bwambale, S. Kiraga, and A. Katimbo, "A systematic review of fourth industrial revolution technologies in smart irrigation: constraints, opportunities, and future prospects for sub-Saharan Africa," in Agricultural Technology, Elsevier, 2024. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2024.100412

B. Reiger, "ADOPTION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BASED TECHNOLOGIES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE," 2022. unl.pt

Anosike, P. Liravi, and U. Silas, "A Roadmap for Intelligent Agriculture in Africa-A Case Study of Sub-Saharan Africa," ieomsociety.org, . ieomsociety.org

M. Songol, F. Awuor, and B. Maake, "Adoption of artificial intelligence in agriculture in the developing nations: a review," Technology & Entrepreneurship in Africa, 2021. ajol.info

J. Wanyama, S. Kiraga, and E. Bwambale, "… Use Efficiency Through Fertigation Supported by Machine Learning and Internet of Things in a Context of Developing Countries: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Biosystems, Springer, 2023. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42853-023-00196-8

Gwagwa, E. Kazim, P. Kachidza, A. Hilliard, and K. Siminyu, "Road map for research on responsible artificial intelligence for development (AI4D) in African countries: The case study of agriculture," Patterns, 2021. cell.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2021.100381

L. S. Cedric, W. Y. H. Adoni, R. Aworka, and J. T. Zoueu, "Crops yield prediction based on machine learning models: Case of West African countries," in Agricultural Technology, Elsevier, 2022. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2022.100049

R. D. Kush, D. Warzel, M. A. Kush, and A. Sherman, "FAIR data sharing: the roles of common data elements and harmonization," Journal of Biomedical, Elsevier, 2020. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103421

I. Ugochukwu and P. W. B. Phillips, "Data sharing in plant phenotyping research: Perceptions, practices, enablers, barriers and implications for science policy on data management," The Plant Phenome Journal, 2022. wiley.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ppj2.20056

Mwamahonje, Z. Mdindikasi, D. Mchau, and E. Mwenda, "Advances in Sorghum Improvement for Climate Resilience in the Global Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics: A Review," Agronomy, 2024. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14123025

O. Donfouet and I. Ngouhouo, "Impact of artificial intelligence on the total productivity of agricultural factors in Africa," Environment, . (HTML)

S. Ben Mariem, D. Soba, B. Zhou, I. Loladze, and F. Morales, "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Grain Quality of C3 Cereals: A Meta-Analysis of Temperature, and Drought Effects," Plants, 2021. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10061052

F. Fontes, A. Gorst, and C. Palmer, "Threshold effects of extreme weather events on cereal yields in India," Climatic Change, 2021. lse.ac.uk DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03051-x

E. E. Rezaei, H. Webber, S. Asseng, K. Boote, "Climate change impacts on crop yields," Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2023. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0

B. T. Haile, T. T. Zeleke, K. T. Beketie, D. Y. Ayal et al., "Analysis of El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impact on rainfall distribution and productivity of selected cereal crops in Kembata Alaba Tembaro zone," Climate Services, 2021. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100254

L. Raimi, M. Panait, and R. Sule, "Leveraging precision agriculture for sustainable food security in sub-Saharan Africa: a theoretical discourse," in *Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Trade*, Springer, 2021. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3260-0_21

L. Amusan and S. Oyewole, "Precision agriculture and the prospects of space strategy for food security in Africa," African Journal of Science, Technology, 2023. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2022.2090224

H. A. Mupambwa, A. D. Nciizah, and E. Dube, "Precision agriculture under arid environments: prospects for African smallholder farmers," Food Security for African, Springer, 2022. researchgate.net DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6771-8_7

M. Ofori and O. El-Gayar, "Drivers and challenges of precision agriculture: a social media perspective," Precision Agriculture, 2021. (HTML) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-020-09760-0

J. Degila, I. S. Tognisse, and A. C. Honfoga, "A survey on digital agriculture in five West African countries," Agriculture, 2023. mdpi.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202304.0831.v1

B. Merz, C. Kuhlicke, M. Kunz, M. Pittore, "Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards," *Reviews of*, 2020. wiley.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704

S. I. Seneviratne, X. Zhang, M. Adnan, and W. Badi, "Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate," centaur.reading.ac.uk, 2021. reading.ac.uk

M. Fathi, M. Haghi Kashani, and S. M. Jameii, "Big data analytics in weather forecasting: A systematic review," Methods in Engineering, Springer, 2022. e-tarjome.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-021-09616-4

K. L. Ebi, J. Vanos, J. W. Baldwin, and J. E. Bell, "Extreme weather and climate change: population health and health system implications," Annual Review of, 2021. annualreviews.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105026

J.E. Walsh, T.J. Ballinger, E.S. Euskirchen, and E. Hanna, "Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review," Earth-Science, Elsevier, 2020. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103324

C. D. Girotto, F. Piadeh, V. Bkhtiari, and K. Behzadian, "A critical review of digital technology innovations for early warning of water-related disease outbreaks associated with climatic hazards," Journal of Disaster Risk, 2024. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104151

M. Lahsen and J. Ribot, "Politics of attributing extreme events and disasters to climate change," *Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate*, 2022. wiley.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.750

S. Albahri, Y. L. Khaleel, M. A. Habeeb, and R. D. Ismael, "A systematic review of trustworthy artificial intelligence applications in natural disasters," *Computers and …*, Elsevier, 2024. sciencedirect.com DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compeleceng.2024.109409

Downloads

Published

2025-02-19

Issue

Section

Review

How to Cite

1.
Chavula P, Kayusi F, Juma L. Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Wheat Yield Resilience Amidst Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. LatIA [Internet]. 2025 Feb. 19 [cited 2025 Apr. 6];3:88. Available from: https://latia.ageditor.uy/index.php/latia/article/view/88